Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
