Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
